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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still