Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
